Republican front-runner John McCain, 71, survived rough waters in the Potomac Primary on Tuesday or February 12, winning all electoral votes in Washington, DC, Maryland and Virginia. So he laid an unshakeable foundation for the Republican nomination. In fact, he is coming close to clinching the nomination. To date, President George W. Bush also gave him consent.
For another Republican candidate, former Arkansas governor Mike Huchabee, it is very hard to take an upper hand again though he still has a certain sum of "capital" to play with. So the outcome in the race for the Republican primary nomination has, on the whole, have been settled.
Latest developments with the Democrat primaries, however, are just the opposite. Situation with Democrat primaries have been landed in an impasse and it is so far hard to tell at present who will win eventually. In drastic contrast to Senator Barack Obama's momentum, Senator Hillary Clinton is faced with grave campaign setbacks. Mrs. Clinton suffered defeats one after another, whereas Obama got a major boost Tuesday with victories in the Democratic presidential primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, thus gaining an opening to make the case that Democratic voters have broken in his favor. Earlier, Hillary Clinton also lost to Obama in the states of Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington last Saturday or on February 9. All this filled Mrs. Clinton with a sense of crisis, and she replaced a campaign manager following these consecutive setbacks.
Yet, it is still far too early to predict the outcome of the race for the Democratic Party Presidential Nomination at present. Of the 50 states and Washington DC., primaries have been held in 32 states and the District of Columbia. Barack Obama won 21 states while Hillary Clinton won only 12 states. In term of electoral votes, both of them received anywhere about 1,200 votes.
To compare with Obama, Hillary Clinton's "soft rib" or "weak constitution" has begun to betray or lay bare itself. Organizationally, Hillary holds appeal for women voters, most of whom being old and relatively old, who, though rational and reasoning, are not so energetic and vigorous. Obama's followers, however, are composed chiefly of youths, who are full of vigor and vitality.
Presidential primaries and caucuses are two methods that political parties used to let party members (voters) select their party nominee. So the grassroots organizers who U.S. House Speaker Democrat Nancy Pelosi said have great power in this year's convention. Voters, who are required to assemble at designated sites, are asked to line up in accordance with the candidates they endorse and vote for. Hence, the complex and tedious procedure would usually take two to three hours. Some elderly voters and even relatively old or middle-aged ones cannot stand the whole procedure. Consequently, young volunteers are aroused to seek ballots and Obama has a large number of such volunteer supporters. So Obama, in a sense, enjoys superiority at the grassroots level organizationally.
Second, to view psychologically, voters very much aspire to make changes. In the words of an ace American scholar, the United States is currently confronted with two major battlegrounds, that is, how to win the wars both in Afghanistan and Iraq externally, and how to prevent or reverse economic recession domestically. In this contest, Obama raised the slogan "change, we can believe in" is very popular, inspiring and agitating with hundreds of people at its beck, and it is far better and more convincing than Hillary's tag "strength and experience."
Moreover, Hillary has a lot of political oppents or foes from her long career on the political stage. As for Obama, though short of political experience, poses a new shiny star in the political arena and does not have any sworn enemies. Therefore, he can hoist a banner of uniting with the democrats and mending off or "bridging" disparities with Republicans, which is quite convincing.
Third, relevant opinion polls prediction for the ongoing Presidential Campaign is unfavorable to Hillary. To date, polls show that Obama is sure to win McCain, whereas Hillary can perhaps take only a slight lead over McCain and is not dead sure of her victory. Such a prediction can bring some influences on a voting trend in the Democratic Party and it will naturally be a trump card in Obama's possession. Hillary is far more experienced than Obama and has the very face of a strong woman. Yet she has to bow to McCain, who has worked in the US senate for nearly three decades and is quite expert in diplomatic and defense affairs. In contrast, Obama's new face will make McCain dull and look dim nevertheless.
this, of course, does not imply Hillary Clinton will take a down-hill path in days ahead. Though it is far too early to declare her defeat, she has to undergo severe tests. Though Obama has won primaries in a score of states, these states are nevertheless smaller and medium-size ones. Hillary has won most of the major states and won more or less equal ballots. furthermore, polls indicate that Hillary would win primaries again in Ohio and Texas on March 4. If she wins primaries and take the lead in these two states, Hillary could then retrieve the situation and regain initiative. So the "fight between the two tigers or powers" will sustain and linger on.
By People's Daily Online and its author is Li Xuejiang, chief PD resident reporter in the United StatesAuthor：World Politics Time：2008-05-24 From：china daily
